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US Venture Capital Outlook: H1 Follow-Up

2023

US Venture Capital Outlook: H1 Follow-Up

June 26, 2023

Checking in on our 2023 US VC predictions

Back in December, we made a list of predictions for the US VC industry in 2023. Six months on, we return to our forecasts in the 2023 US Venture Capital Outlook: H1 Follow-Up.  

The first half of the year came with some surprises. The S&P and NASDAQ are in the green, median pre-money valuations for seeds are going steady at $11 million, and micro investors are buoying the pre-seed market. But a flurry of startups is headed for liquidity limbo. Check out which of our predictions have panned out so far and what’s to come in H2.  

2023 outlooks
The Morningstar-PitchBook US Unicorn Index will show a negative return from January 1, 2023, through December 31, 2023. 3
Series C and D rounds will see the most down rounds, as these companies are currently the most starved for capital. 4
Seed-stage startup valuations and deal sizes will continue their ascent, reaching new annual highs despite a slowdown in total deal value and count. 6
SPAC IPOs and mergers will continue to decline, while liquidations will continue to increase in 2023. 7
Venture-growth deal value will fall below $50 billion in the US. 8
2023 US VC mega-round activity will fall below 400 deals, hitting a three-year low. 9
US VC fundraising will fall between $120 billion and $130 billion in 2023. 10