What Anthropic’s leaked numbers mean for its IPO
Anthropic’s draft IPO filing shows a company growing faster than its annual results can capture. Revenue was nearly $4.6 billion in 2025, and by late July 2026, the business was generating more than $65 billion annually. At that run rate, a $2 trillion listing costs just under 31 times sales, compared with roughly 435 times last year’s revenue.
The filing also shows about $518 billion in computing commitments, roughly 80% of which are noncancelable, while many of the largest customers can cut spending at any time. We think the leak supports a valuation well above $1 trillion and falls short of justifying $2 trillion until the public filing shows gross margin, the payment schedule for those commitments, and a credible path to free cash flow.
A $2 trillion IPO price is about 435 times Anthropic’s 2025 revenue and just under 31 times its July run rate. The price rests on how much revenue becomes cash.
Table of contents
| Key takeaways | 1 |
| The run rate is the right basis for valuation | 2 |
| Compute drives the real loss | 2 |
| $518 billion of commitments—most of them fixed | 3 |
| Fixed costs, flexible revenue | 5 |
| What $2 trillion requires | 5 |
| Governance limits public shareholders | 6 |
| What to watch in the public filing | 7 |
| References | 8 |
