OpenAI’s $1.43 trillion round prices revenue that it has not yet reached
OpenAI reported that its annualized revenue (run rate) at the end of September was about $50 billion, not $70 billion as estimated by investors. A day after that correction, it was reported that OpenAI expects to reach $70 billion in annualized revenue by year-end. We update our AIBQ score for OpenAI; show how the year-end target assumes that growth slows by about half; put fair value near $1 trillion, below the reported round; and test the reported $1.43 trillion post-money valuation against OpenAI’s own 2030 plan.
OpenAI’s reported $1.43 trillion post-money valuation is 28.6x its $50 billion run rate and only 20.4x if it hits its $70 billion year-end target.
Table of contents
| Key takeaways | 1 |
| The AIBQ score barely moves as governance setbacks offset the revenue gains | 2 |
| The corrected $50 billion run rate shows growth speeding up | 3 |
| The $70 billion target restates the plan and needs about half of Q3’s growth | 4 |
| Losses keep growing because costs are almost three times revenue | 5 |
| The new round prices December’s revenue today | 6 |
| What would change our view | 7 |
| References | 8 |
