PitchBook clients can access this report and the complete Excel data pack via the Research Center on the PitchBook Platform.
Interested in sponsoring future editions of this report? Visit our media partnerships page to learn more.
Déjà vu for the middle market, with new risks attached
Middle-market deal value fell to its lowest level since the 2022-2023 rate shock, down 8.7% QoQ to $92.4 billion. Exit value sank to its lowest point since Q2 2020 to $24.7 billion—even as deal and exit counts held surprisingly steady. Amid renewed market uncertainty, smaller transactions are winning out, as evidenced by entry multiples breaking a seven-year streak above 10x. Capital is rotating away from IT and toward founder-owned, lower-priced assets.
Despite the pullback, fundraising remains one of the segment’s few bright spots, with managers pacing slightly ahead of 2025’s total even as capital continues to concentrate among established names. Elevated dry powder and a persistent performance edge over megafunds keep the middle market well positioned heading into H2. Our Q2 2026 US PE Middle Market Report, sponsored by Grant Thornton | Stax and Insperity, maps out the current slowdown, as well as what’s in store for the middle market.
Q2 middle-market deal activity fell into the all-too-familiar doldrums, driven by new and pronounced uncertainty. However, early signs point to improved sentiment for Q3.