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Q4 2023

Quantitative Perspectives: The Waiting Game

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PE stuck in a holding pattern

Hot economic growth and consumer spending have combined with cooler inflation to craft a healthy US economy. But the higher-for-longer timeline for interest rates and a disconnect on valuations between buyers and sellers create a more lukewarm environment for private equity.  

While PE firms dealt with those issues, another threat emerged to the industry’s growth: higher yields on Treasury notes. Long-term bonds could present competition for PE as institutional investors allocate capital to less risky asset classes.

The latest report in our data-rich Quantitative Perspectives series, The Waiting Game, presents the case for long-term challenges in PE.


Table of contents
Introduction 2
The economic environment 3
Shifting bond market dynamics and considerations for allocators 13
Challenges to the buyout model 22
The exit drought worsens 32