Three of the most sought-after companies in the VC secondaries market—SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic—are expected to go public in the coming year in record-breaking IPOs.
Their exits would leave a big hole in the secondaries market, which has become incredibly concentrated over the last couple of years while attracting more buyers, sellers and capital than ever before. The top 20 startups on Hiive drove 86.4% of secondary trading value in Q4 2025, with the top five alone accounting for 55.6%.
“The hottest companies are going public ... they’re coming off the table for all the secondaries,” said Mark Leahy, a partner at Fenwick & West specializing in secondaries.
If all three list this year, PitchBook data estimates they would raise more than $100 billion in combined proceeds—and generate more exit value than every US VC-backed IPO since 2000 collectively. SpaceX is targeting an IPO valuation of roughly $1.5 trillion for its expected mid-2026 debut. OpenAI was valued at $840 billion in its $110 billion round in February, and Anthropic closed its Series G in February at a $380 billion valuation.
Meanwhile, the size of the US venture secondaries market, including LP stake transactions, was an estimated $106.3 billion in 2025, according to PitchBook data. Direct secondaries in startup stakes accounted for an estimated $91.7 billion of the 2025 total, nearly double the prior-year market.
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Buyers have been willing to pay at or near last-round prices for stakes in the hottest companies, with some secondaries investors making the argument that the price of investment is worth the potential eventual returns. A good chunk of that portion of the market has also been in the form of layered SPVs marketed to retail investors, as well as through the wealth channel, said Larry Aschebrook, founder and managing partner of G Squared.
The number of secondary SPVs on Sydecar is up 682% from 2023 levels, with capital raised up 1,340%, per PitchBook’s 2025 Annual US VC Secondary Market Watch. The median 2025 SPV on the platform raised $930,000 from nine LPs over a 16-day period.
But some experts are more optimistic about the market’s abilities to fill the gap. “While demand tends to be concentrated in a handful of companies, I’m not too concerned about secondary market viability or activity when they exit,” said Shriram Bhashyam, COO of Sydecar. “As has happened in the past, new, exciting technology companies will take their place and secondary trading activity will continue.”
And if these mega-listings have a positive effect on the IPO market, it could boost secondaries activity for the next class of candidates. “If their [public] offerings are successful, that will increase interest of buyers for other companies that are coming up behind them … it may end up increasing demand from buyers for shares from private companies that have not gone public yet,” Leahy said.
If nothing else, the twin trends of dry powder for secondaries piling up—hitting $11.8 billion in June 2025, up 2.8x from 2022—and LPs still clamoring for liquidity are unlikely to keep the market still.
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