At the 2025 Milken Institute Global Conference, the annual confab of asset managers, owners, philanthropists and celebrities in Beverly Hills, a full-body rendering of Michael Milken shakes his hips in a tux, responds to questions and speaks in Spanish.
The tech, a new Zoom replacement technology called Proto (VC-backed), is meant to bring users closer to the experience of having in-person conversations.
But the main topics of conversation have been events in the physical world: President Donald Trump’s tariffs and their effects on private market returns.
On Trump’s trade policy
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent opened the conference with what asset management chiefs called a clearer “articulation” of the Trump administration’s trade policy.
Since the tariffs were announced during the so-called “Liberation Day” a month ago, private market deal activity has taken a massive step back as dealmakers wait out the uncertainty, attendees said.
In a conversation with his KKR co-founder, Henry Kravis, George Roberts told a ballroom audience to “keep calm and carry on"—borrowing an old saying to help guide investors through the current market fog.
Although any market comeback will be slow until a final tariff policy is announced, Bain Capital’s David Gross said that activity is starting to pick back up.
“You’re starting to see sellers take deals that were delayed and think about putting them back in the market,” he said.
And others focused on the positives, such as moves to help trim the national debt.
“We ended up with these big trade deficits because our markets were open to them and their markets weren’t open to us,” said Steven Mnuchin, Trump’s former Secretary of the Treasury, about China trade policy.
Looking for exits
Despite a lot of hand-wringing in the press about the IPO window not reopening yet, Carlyle CEO Harvey Schwartz challenged the narrative by pointing to the group taking its portfolio company Hexware public in India.
“There’s a lot of press about distributions being way off, and that’s just not what the data says,” said Pete Stavros, KKR global co-head of private equity, in a pushback to another theme of the conference. In fact, he said, capital deployment is showing that there are distributions.
Meanwhile, Molly Murphy, CIO of Orange County Employees Retirement System, said she felt the middle market was the “Goldilocks spot of growth acceleration and exit opportunity at scale.”
Investing in (and outside) the US
Investors highlighted other opportunity bright spots, such as India—an evolving market, as Apollo’s CEO Marc Rowan and Blackstone COO Jon Gray mentioned during a wide-ranging conversation on stage.
“Emerging market investing has been tough, with a few exceptions,” said Gray.
“The biggest place for us by far in the emerging world, and (it) has been in the last decade, has been India,” Gray added. “It’s delivered exceptional returns.”
He noted that India’s government is building physical, legal and capital markets infrastructure, paving the way for more growth. “It’s not China in terms of the pace things happen, but the path of travel is very positive.”
They also discussed opportunities in private credit, with Rowan bullish on Europe.
“From a credit point of view, I think Europe is going to be one of best credit markets in the world,” said Rowan.
Its capital markets are not as deep, its insurance market is less developed for long-dated capital, and Apollo sees the opportunity to earn wide spreads for flexible capital.
They’re not the only ones doubling down abroad.
“If you look at our pipeline today, the majority of our pipeline is actually outside the US,” said Alisa Wood, KKR co-CEO of private equity.
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