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IPO Watchlist: Crypto’s hopes may hinge on US regulation

The Trump administration is expected to create a friendlier regulatory regime that could inspire a number of venture-backed crypto companies to finally go public.

The Trump administration is expected to create a friendlier regulatory regime that could inspire a number of venture-backed crypto companies to finally go public.

There was just one VC-backed crypto IPO in 2024, with a mere four in 2023 and five in 2022, according to PitchBook’s Q4 2024 Crypto VC Trends. A record of eight companies went public in 2021, thanks in large part to the boom in special purpose acquisition companies that year.

Now, a growing number of prominent digital asset startups are eyeing debuts, including stablecoin issuer Circle, crypto exchange Gemini and Ripple, which is behind the token XRP. And even more VC-backed companies could be considered viable IPO candidates, according to PitchBook data.

“This new regulatory regime is going to allow for the increased adoption of cryptocurrency and use of these platforms,” said Sylvia Favretto, general counsel at blockchain infrastructure startup Mysten Labs.

But potential IPO investors will scrutinize public offerings beyond conventional crypto growth metrics, added Favretto. She said profitability, or a clear path to it, could be a priority alongside user and customer growth.

Circle, the issuer of top stablecoin USDC, has been one of the most closely watched crypto IPOs on the docket. The company—which commanded a $15 billion valuation in 2022 when an attempt to go public fell through—would be in a considerably stronger IPO position this year if stablecoin legislation becomes law in the US.

Regulatory impact

The timing for these public listings is highly dependent on expected changes in crypto regulation.

Though the SEC has dropped its landmark lawsuit against Coinbase and its yearslong legal battle with Ripple, among other cases alleging unregistered securities dealings, crypto VCs say key regulatory uncertainties remain.

Near the top of that list: President Donald Trump signing into law a bill to regulate stablecoins. On March 13, the Senate advanced the measure to the floor. Investors say its passage would make Circle’s IPO even more attractive, say investors.

Broader regulatory clarity for the industry would help companies and investors better navigate the market, which has already become more volatile thanks to new tariffs.

“Under Trump 1, we mostly had chaos. … It’s still like buyer beware on the information front. What sounds good one day might not be true a week or two later, and you can’t build companies on that type of chaotic information,” said David Pakman, managing partner and head of venture investments at CoinFund. “You need some certainty.”

Still, he expects five or six crypto IPOs this year.

A bill that would explicitly regulate crypto assets more broadly is also in the works. It would categorize various types of digital assets and direct the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission to divide up regulatory jurisdiction. The bill also adds more oversight over trading on exchanges.

‘Failure to launch’ crypto listings

In bull markets for spot digital assets, crypto supporters have often expected IPOs to follow soon after. But that has rarely been the case.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have seen price gains over the last 12 months despite an overall market pullback.

There was a “little bit of a failure to launch” in terms of IPOs at the height of the last bull market in 2021 and 2022, said Banafsheh Fathieh, general partner at Faction. The broader market downturn led companies that “just didn’t have the metrics that would fare well in the IPO market ... to shelf their plan until some of the market recovered.”

Fathieh estimates that at least nine to 10 crypto companies are considering upcoming IPOs.

Still, regulatory clarity is at the top of the industry’s wish list, Andreessen Horowitz general counsel Miles Jennings reminded the SEC during the agency’s panel Friday on digital assets. A longstanding lack of “guidance to the industry” has let judges “decide over a period of years what happens,” Jennings said. The end result has stifled investment in the sector, he warned.

The list below was created using PitchBook’s VC Exit Predictor, which calculates exit probability using a machine learning model that is fed historic and real-time data on private company exits. The predictor draws from 34 inputs related to company characteristics, financing and investors.

The companies either declined to comment, did not return requests for comment or did not comment specifically on potential IPO plans. A spokesperson for Ripple deferred to recent comments by its CEO, which hinted at the possibility of going public.

 

Correction: The article has been updated to correct the name of Faction general partner Banafsheh Fathieh. (March 28, 2025)

Featured image of “AI and Crypto Czar” David Sacks, from left, and President Donald Trump by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

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  • Michael Bodley Headshot
    Michael Bodley is a senior venture capital reporter at PitchBook News, covering top fund managers and developments affecting limited partners. Based in New York, Michael previously led TheStreet.com’s crypto coverage. He also reported for Hedge Fund Alert after breaking into journalism at the San Francisco Chronicle. Originally from Baltimore, Michael graduated from Elon University.
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